Presidential Elections & Investing | Should I Invest During Elections?

Presidential Elections & Investing | Should I Invest During Elections?

This week on the blog, Jonathan Satovsky analyzes how elections affect investing by looking at historical market volatility during previous elections and discusses whether you should invest during the election year.


Good afternoon. This is Jonathan Satovsky of Satovsky Asset Management.

On this episode of Seeking Wisdom, Wealth and Wellness we are going to talk about the elections.

People are all a little anxious about the elections worrying, “well, let me wait to make any decision.” [They are putting off] investment decisions, whether to save or invest, until after the election because everyone knows that it’s going to be volatile and uncertain, and it’s not a good time to make decisions.

Well, let’s go to the facts.

The facts are, as a recent study from Vanguard has shown, analyzing a 60-40 portfolio, 60% stocks and 40% bonds going all the way back 160 years:

 

based on a recent Vanguard study I discuss how elections affect investing by looking at historical market volatility during previous election periods, and whether you should invest during an election.

 

[Within this period] there is 40 election years and 120 non-election years. During the 40 election years, the markets averaged 8.9% – with the 60-40 blend – and during the 120 non-election years, the markets averaged 8.1%.

So contrary to people’s feelings, the facts are that people have better investment climates during election years.

Now let’s look at volatility, things being uncertain.

Well everyday’s uncertain. Today I woke up it was chilly and I had to put on a coat; the sun is shining but it’s still 50 degrees rather than 70 or 80 degrees. So you adjust to the climate.

The historical volatility of the S&P 500, as measured by standard deviation is 15.7%.

Amazingly, a hundred days before the election and a hundred days after the election, volatility has been 13.8%, which is less than every other period.

So, contrary to people’s feelings of the uncertainty and the anxiety of worrying about what’s next, the reality and the facts are it’s a better time to invest. Volatility is less, and the conditions are such that everyone is iron clad focused on creating a better future.

So you do the same – adjust, and get into disciplined systematic habits on your journey of seeking your own wisdom, wealth and wellness.

Have a great day.

 


This video is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation or offer to buy any securities or interests in any strategy offered by SAM.  PLEASE REMEMBER THAT DIFFERENT TYPES OF INVESTMENTS INVOLVE VARYING DEGREES OF RISK, AND THAT PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the strategies recommended or undertaken by SAM) will be profitable.  Market index information shown herein is included to show relative market performance  for the periods indicated and not as standards of comparison.  The market volatility, liquidity and other characteristics of SAM’s portfolio composition are materially different from the securities listed on public market indices.  Market index information was compiled from sources that SAM believes to be reliable.  No representation of guarantee is made hereby with respect of the accuracy or completeness or such data.  Opinions are as of date of video and are subject to change.  A copy of SAM’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees continues to remain available for your review upon request. SAM undertakes no duty to update information presented herein.
Vanguard, Elections matter, but not so much to your investments, 2020. Retrieved from: https://image.e-vanguard.com/lib/fe9813727561007d70/m/4/5480618d-5545-4a41-934a-5da88da03d67.pdf
Video recorded on September 21, 2020.
2020-10-22T20:13:17+00:00
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